EBP 2

Propaganda & Protest

In their 2021 article published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Erin Baggott Carter and Brett L. Carter examine the role of propaganda in authoritarian regimes. Propaganda and Protest in Autocracies focuses on how autocrats strategically deploy propaganda to maintain control, particularly in regimes where electoral competition poses a challenge. The article aims to find out if propaganda reduces the rate of popular protest in autocracies, and sets about doing this by drawing on an original dataset of state-run newspapers across thirty countries, including six different languages and over four million articles. This post will summarize their key arguments, contextualize the reading, and offer some critical commentary on the methods and implications of their research.

The article notes that the autocrats facing significant electoral challenges must craft propaganda that is credible and persuasive. In contrast, regimes with less political competition often rely on more coercive, less believable propaganda that serves to intimidate rather than convince.

This is a political science study that contributes to the broader literature on authoritarianism, especially in understanding how autocratic regimes adapt to sustain power. The study moves beyond the traditional view that elections, repression, and propaganda are separate tools of authoritarian control. Instead, it argues that propaganda is a flexible tool that can either bolster regime credibility or enforce domination, depending on the political environment. This intervention into the debate surrounding authoritarian survival is timely, as we continue to see authoritarian regimes adapting to changing political landscapes globally. However Chubb and Wang (2023) believe that authoritarian states are among those who play up dangerous international crises in domestic propaganda, suggesting that comparative politics has focused on regime legitimacy and stability as key components of their authoritarian propaganda practices.

Carter and Carter support their argument by employing a global dataset that includes examples of autocratic propaganda from numerous regimes. Their analysis is supported by both quantitative data and qualitative insights, utilizing textual analysis and survey experiments to evaluate the effectiveness and strategic rollout of propaganda.. The authors argue that autocracies must tailor their propaganda to suit the level of electoral competition they face. For instance, regimes like Russia, which hold semi-competitive elections, tend to use more credible and persuasive propaganda. In contrast, more repressive regimes, like North Korea, rely on propaganda that is less about persuasion and more about maintaining control through fear and domination.

One possible weakness is the reliance on a quantitative approach to measure the success of propaganda across different regimes. Propaganda's impact can be deeply contextual and subjective, varying greatly from one regime to another based on cultural, historical, and social factors. Although the authors provide a nuanced analysis, it might be useful to include more case-specific studies that take these contextual differences into account.

This article is particularly relevant to studies of authoritarian regimes, showing how propaganda functions alongside other tools like repression and elections to maintain power. It provides a theoretical foundation for understanding the flexibility of autocratic regimes in response to internal and external pressures, illustrating the adaptive nature of authoritarian rule in a way that ties directly into discussions on regime resilience and survival. This study shows just how delicate the balance autocrats must maintain between coercion and legitimacy to stay in power.

In conclusion, this article offers a well made, thoroughly researched contribution to the study of authoritarianism by focusing on the strategic use of propaganda in response to political competition. The comprehensive dataset makes the article an important read for those interested in the mechanisms of authoritarian control. While there is the limitations of contextual measurement, that is difficult to combat in any study, and they have done well to include such a broad dataset. The article successfully bridges key gaps in the literature on autocratic survival, repression, and the role of propaganda.

Carter, E. B., & Carter, B. L. (2021). Propaganda and Protest in Autocracies. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65(5), 919-949. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720975090

Chubb, Andrew, and Frances Yaping Wang. "Authoritarian Propaganda Campaigns on Foreign Affairs: Four Birds, One Stone, and the South China Sea Arbitration." International Studies Quarterly 67, no. 3 (September 2023): sqad047. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad047.